Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) Update Number 13


Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (13:30 GMT) Friday 08 May 2015
Next Update: Friday Evening, 08 May 2015

Typhoon NOUL (DODONG) has maintained its strength as it shifts its track to the northwest over the South-Central part of the Philippine Sea…likely to pass close to the north of Catanduanes by Saturday afternoon (May 09). The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the eastern shores of Northern Isabela or Cagayan by Sunday afternoon (May 10)…with a Strike Probability of 60 to 70 percent.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon incl. the Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of NOUL (DODONG).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Catanduanes and the easternmost part of Camarines Sur – tomorrow (Saturday, May 09); Most parts of Bicol – beginning Saturday afernoon (May 09) through Sunday (May 10); Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Aurora, Isabela and Cagayan – Sunday (May 10) through Monday (May 11).


As of 11:00 AM PhT today, May 08…0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY NOUL (DODONG)
Location: Over the South-Central part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.5N 129.4E)
About: 445 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar…or 575 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center…Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 695 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 100 km North from the center and 85 km south from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest to Northwest @ 20 kph
Towards: Eastern Luzon


TY NOUL (DODONG) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours…turning to northwest on the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, Noul will be approaching the northeastern shores of Catanduanes on Saturday morning and shall be nearing the eastern shores of Isabela by Sunday morning (May 10).

NOUL (DODONG) will still gain strength during the next 24 hours and afterward it will start to gradually weaken due to the frictional effect of the mountain ranges of Northestern Luzon to its circulation. The Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 200 kph on Saturday morning (May 09).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Gaining strength as it approaches the northeastern shores of Catanduanes…about 275 km east-northeast of Sorsogon City [8AM MAY 09: 14.5N 126.0E @ 200kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
SUNDAY MORNING: Turns to northwest…and weakens slightly…about 65 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela [8AM MAY 10: 17.1N 123.0E @ 195kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY MORNING: Turns sharply to the north, near the Batanes Group of Island…continues to weaken gradually…about 25 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes [8AM MAY 11: 20.6N 121.7E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri May 08, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 12.5º N Lat 129.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 435 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 470 km NE of Siargao Island
Distance 3: 585 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 625 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 685 km ESE of Metro Naga

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

Email Address: WeatherPhilippines@weather.com.ph
Direct Line: +632 886-2797/886-2485

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